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The past hours saw a massive sell-off, causing an unexpected and enormous plunge to sub-$40K in the price of Bitcoin. The onchain data is showing an absolute capitulation phase in the market, which was intensified by long-term holders just before the crashing to $35K.
Long Term Analysis: The Daily Chart
Yesterday, Bitcoin lost a critical support range at $37K – $40K. As shown in the chart below, before the price decline beneath $40K, both 50-DMA and 100-DMA lines have crossed the 200-DMA to the downside, indicating further bearish momentum incoming.
Possible support levels are the current price area at $35K followed by $30K (May – July 2021 lows). On the other hand, the former support area ($40K) had turned into significant resistance if the price made a pullback from either of the two support areas mentioned. The daily RSI also indicates on massively oversold, currently sitting at the 20% mark, suggesting that a bullish pullback is possible over the short term.
Short Term Analysis: The 4-Hour Chart
Evaluating the last week’s price action on the 4-hour timeframe, it is evident that the price was under a heavy downtrend and got rejected at the 100-MA several times.
This time was no different, as the price dropped impulsively from $48K to $40K, went through a consolidation phase, and once again, got rejected at the 100-MA. This rejection triggered the next bearish leg down.
With the considerable spike in trading volume and the last couple of candles around the $35k support, we can expect another phase of consolidation before the market decides its next direction.
Spent output profit ratio (SOPR) is a well-known on-chain metric that can map the “Capitulation” phase in a bear market.
The short-term holders have been selling or moving their coins after Bitcoin registered the recent November ATH at $69K. During the recent bloody days, short-term holders were panic-selling and realizing their losses. As you can see, the STH_SOPR metric has dropped to 0.95 during the last shakeout, which is a perfect explanation for the “Capitulation” event.
An interesting piece of data that completes the puzzle was the sudden spike in the LTH-SOPR before the recent price drop. This means some long-term holders may have tried to exit the market before the crash and by doing so, they intensified the negative momentum in the market.
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