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ARK Invest, the brainchild of savvy investor Cathie Wood, has had a rough go over the past few months. The flagship fund ARKK is down nearly 60% from itâs record high last year, however Wood and her team of analysts arenât stopping their full-focus on innovative and forward-thinking investments â even when fundamental investments are running the show.
This week was host to ARKâs âBig Ideas Summit,â and ARK crypto analyst Yassine Elmandjra supplemented that material with a boisterous bitcoin tweet that will be music to BTC maxiâs ears.
Cathie Wood & ARK Invest: Notorious Bulls
Elmandjraâs tweet, which can be found below, showcases how a single BTC unit could hit $1M in value, with a couple prime assumptions:
The price of a single bitcoin could exceed $1 million by 2030.
We are still early. pic.twitter.com/rvja2h2vi5
â Yassine Elmandjra (@yassineARK) January 25, 2022
Letâs take a look at that graphic specifically to drill down on the assumptions being made here, and why theyâre important:
The core key assumption here, of course, is the staggering growth in bitcoinâs market cap over the next 9 years. In this model, the ARK team is projecting growth from a current market cap of $1.1T to a $28.5T market cap. How does this scale? According to an October 2021 report from securities trade group SIFMA, the U.S. equity markets carry a market cap around $50T â making a $28.5T market cap for a global bitcoin market seem not all that unreasonable. Elmandrjaâs graphic also states anticipated breakdown of the use case allocated within the market cap, and itâs representative contribution towards the price per BTC.
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ARKK, the flagship innovation fund behind ARK Invest, has had a difficult year following strong success. Can growth stocks and innovative investments turn around? | Source: NYSE: ARKK on TradingView.com
More From The Research DeskâŠ
Elmandrja and the ARK Invest team continue on to note that even assuming a $28.5T market cap could be more conservative than ambitious. Elmandrja added, âIf Bitcoin does hit $1 million, it will still only represent a fraction of global asset valuesâ and also highlighted the notorious âdiamond handsâ that bitcoin holders often exhibit, stating that âmarket participants are maturing and remain long term focused. Aggregate cost basis (realized cap) is at all time highs and more than 13.5 million btc are held by long-term holders.â
This, of course, isnât likely anything groundbreaking to those who have studied the bottom-line extensively. Compared to other relative global markets, a $28.5T bitcoin market cap today would even be trading at multiples less than comparable markets, such as the global real estate market, global bond market, or global equities market.
Elmandrjaâs full thread is a worthy read for these reasons and several others that take deep dive into ARKâs optimism around bitcoin (and crypto at large) as an investment vehicle. You can also read their broader Big Ideas 2022 report here.
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Featured image from ark-invest.com, Charts from TradingView.com
The writer of this content is not associated or affiliated with any of the parties mentioned in this article. This is not financial advice.
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