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No sign of a significant shift up or down for BTC price, but volume data hints that the bottom could come in weeks or less.
Bitcoin (BTC) failed to reclaim recent losses into July 2 as traders prepared for stagnant price action to continue.
BTC/USD 1-hour candle chart (Bitstamp). Source: TradingView
“Downtrend acceleration” still in force
The Wall Street trading week had finished without surprises, with United States equities practically stagnant — providing little impetus for crypto volatility. The U.S. dollar index, or DXY, fresh from a retest of twenty-year highs, ran out of steam to circle 105 points.
U.S. dollar index (DXY) 1-hour candle chart. Source: TradingView
Order book data from largest global exchange Binance showed BTC/USD caught between buying and selling liquidity close to spot price, ensuring a lack of volatility until traders maneuvered or added significantly to bids or asks.
BTC/USD order book data (Binance). Source: Material Indicators
Zooming out, the outlook hardly seemed any more optimistic for bulls.
For popular trading account Altcoin Sherpa, current conditions promised an extended period of uninspiring performance from Bitcoin, which could last much of 2022.
“Its gonna take months to chop around and accumulate once the bottom is found,” they told their Twitter followers:
“And the bottom might not even come for another few months from today. Hunker down for a long bear market IMO.”
The sentiment was echoed by trader and analyst Rekt Capital, who argued that Bitcoin had not yet made new macro lows or started to consolidate.
#BTC may still very well be in the “Downtrend Acceleration” phase of its correction
But this phase will precede the “Multi-Month Consolidation” phase
Which will precede the “New Macro Uptrend” phase$BTC #Crypto #Bitcoin
— Rekt Capital (@rektcapital) July 1, 2022
“Deleverage yourself. Get your Bitcoin into cold storage. Sit tight,” Checkmate, lead on-chain analyst at research firm Glassnode, added.
Will volume all-time highs echo 2018?
The next week or two could prove to be this cycle’s lows, meanwhile, lending a degree of hope to those concerned that the bottom is still months away.
In a Twitter thread on the day, economist, trader and entrepreneur Alex Krueger noted that volume denominated in BTC hit all-time highs last month.
“As a general rule, trading volume is the highest when markets capitulate,” he explained.
As a general rule, trading volume is the highest when markets capitulate, and such capitulation creates major bottoms.
This weekly chart includes the aggregated bitcoin volume for most BTC pairs (spot & perpetuals across exchanges).
Volume hit its all time high two weeks ago. pic.twitter.com/6ONLibQiL2
— Alex Krüger (@krugermacro) July 2, 2022
In the 2018 bear market, he added, the volume all-time high in fact occurred several weeks before the price bottom, and should this time follow the trend, July could be the site of the next.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, you should conduct your own research when making a decision.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the views of Bitcoin Insider. Every investment and trading move involves risk - this is especially true for cryptocurrencies given their volatility. We strongly advise our readers to conduct their own research when making a decision.