Will bitcoin start the next leg of the rally and break out of $14,000? Let’s study the charts.
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Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.
Galaxy Digital founder Mike Novogratz said that he is not selling his Bitcoin the next time it reaches $14,000 because he anticipates the next up move to carry it to $20,000. However, he does not expect the price to reach lifetime highs in a hurry. He is targeting a new lifetime high only by “the middle or the end of the fourth quarter.”
A recent survey by Jefferies’ indicated that majority of the respondents were unlikely to use Facebook’s Libra due to a lack of trust in the social media giant. Echoing a similar opinion, Nobel prize-winning economist, Joseph Eugene Stiglitz, said that Facebook has earned a “level of distrust that took the banking sector much longer to achieve.” Hence, according to him, only a fool would trust Libra. Contrary to these two opinions, Arthur Hayes, CEO of BitMEX believes that Libra “will destroy commercial and central banks.”
In this leg of the up-move from the lows, bitcoin futures have attracted a lot of trading activity. The Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) Group tweeted that bitcoin futures hit a new high of $1.7 billion in traded value on June 26. With futures volumes picking up, it will be interesting to see how the market reacts to the launch of Bakkt.
Bitcoin (BTC) is attempting to resume the uptrend after a brief pullback. It plunged below the 20-day EMA on July 1 and 2, but on both occasions, buying at lower levels ensured a close (UTC time frame) above the moving average. The price bounced off from just below $9,977.33, which is the 61.80% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent leg of the up move.
Both moving averages are sloping up marginally and the RSI is in positive territory, which suggests that the bulls have again seized the advantage. The BTC/USD pair can now move up to $12,500 where it might face stiff resistance. If this level is crossed, the bulls will attempt to ascend $14,000 and resume the uptrend.
Nevertheless, we believe it will be healthy for the uptrend if the digital currency consolidates for a few days. That will help it make a new higher floor that will be a strong support. Our neutral to bullish view will be invalidated if the digital currency reverses direction from the overhead resistance and plummets below the 50-day SMA.
Ether (ETH) bounced sharply from the 50-day SMA on July 2 but is currently facing resistance close to the 20-day EMA. If the bulls can propel the price and sustain above the 20-day EMA, a rally to $320.84 is likely. The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the RSI is just above 50, which suggests consolidation in the short term.
If the ETH/USD pair turns down from the 20-day EMA and plummets below the 50-day SMA, it can drop to the next support at $225.
The pair has held out quite well in the recent correction, which is a positive sign. It shows demand at lower levels. We will recommend long positions after a breakout and close (UTC time frame) above $320.840. Currently, we remain neutral on the digital currency.
The bulls have held the support at $0.37835 for the past two days but the bounce has been unimpressive. The 20-day EMA is sloping down and the moving averages are on the verge of a bearish crossover, which suggests that the bears are in command. Below $0.37835, Ripple (XRP) can correct to $0.35660. If this level also cracks, the fall can extend to $0.27795.
Our negative view will be invalidated if the XRP/USD pair bounces off the current level and rises above the moving averages. In such a case, a rally to $0.45 is possible. The pair will pick up momentum on a breakout of the recent high of $0.5050. We will wait for buyers to return before recommending long position in it.
Bitcoin cash (BCH) has been clinging to the 50-day SMA for the past two days. The bulls are struggling to push it above this level, which is a negative sign. A failure to break out of the 50-day SMA in the next couple of days will attract selling that can drag the price to the support line of the channel.
The 20-day EMA has started to turn down and the moving averages are on the verge of a bearish crossover. This shows that the sellers have the upper hand. The trend will weaken if the BCH/USD pair breaks down of the channel. The next support is way lower at $280.
Conversely, if the bulls defend the support line of the channel, the pair might attempt to rise above the moving averages once again. We will wait for a strong bounce off the support line of the channel before we suggest fresh long positions in it.
The bulls have held the support at $111.8994, but have not been able to propel Litecoin (LTC) above the 20-day EMA. This is a negative sign. We now expect the bears to attempt to sink the price below the support. If successful, a drop to $100 is likely.
The zone between $100 and the support line of the channel is likely to act as a strong support. If this holds, the LTC/USD pair might extend its stay inside the channel. If we spot strong buying near the support zone, we might suggest a long position once again.
Iif the pair breaks below the support line of the channel, it will turn negative and can plunge to $84 and below it to $71. Conversely, if the cryptocurrency rebounds from the current levels, the bulls will again try to propel the price to $140.3450.
Though the bulls have held the support at $5.550 for the past two days, they have not been able to achieve a strong bounce. This is a negative sign as it shows a lack of urgency among the buyers to own EOS at current levels.
The moving averages have completed a bearish crossover and the RSI is in the negative zone. This shows that bears have the upper hand. If the EOS/USD pair breaks down of $5.550, it can correct to the strong support of $4.4930. Our bearish view will be negated if the pair bounces off $5.550 and scales above the moving averages.
There is a tough tussle between the bulls and the bears near the 50-day SMA. If Binance Coin (BNB) breaks down and sustains below this level, it can plunge to $28.7168. If this support also cracks, the correction can extend to the uptrend line.
The 20-day EMA is gradually sloping down and the RSI has dipped into the negative zone, which suggests that bears have a marginal advantage over bulls.
Our assumption will be invalidated if the BNB/USD pair bounces off the current levels and sustains above the 20-day EMA. If that happens, the bulls will again attempt to break out of $40 and resume the uptrend. As the pair has been a huge outperformer in the past few months, traders should keep a close watch on it. We will suggest long positions if we spot a new buy setup.
Bitcoin SV (BSV) is currently range bound between $172.910 and $255.620. The 20-day EMA is flat and the RSI is close to the center, which shows a balance between buyers and sellers. A consolidation after a sharp rally is a positive sign.
The best way to trade a range is to buy at the support and sell at the resistance. Therefore, aggressive traders can wait for the price to take support at $172.910 and buy on the way up. Positions should not be taken when the price is falling. The stop loss for the trade can be kept at $170.
Our view will be invalidated iIf the bears sink the BSV/USD pair below the support. It can then correct to $152.015 and below it to $134.360.
Tron (TRX) continues to trade inside the ascending channel. The bulls have held $0.030 for the past two days but are struggling to carry the price above the moving averages. This shows a lack of demand at higher levels.
The bears will now try to sink the TRX/USD pair below $0.0290177. If that happens, the pair will drop to the trendline of the ascending channel, which is likely to attract buyers. We will watch the price action at this level and suggest long positions if there is a strong bounce off it.
However, if the digital currency breaks down of the channel, it will become negative and can drop to $0.021, which is a critical support. Currently, both the moving averages are flattening out and the RSI is just below the midpoint, which suggests a range-bound action in the near term.
Cardano (ADA) has corrected to the strong support zone of $0.077–$0.073. The bulls are currently attempting to defend this zone. As the zone has not been broken since mid-May, we expect it to hold. A rebound from the support can carry the price to the moving averages, which will provide some resistance. However, if the bulls push the price above it, a rally to $0.10 is probable.
Contrary to our assumption, if the bears plummet the ADA/USD pair below the support zone, it can drop to the next support of $0.060. Both the moving averages have completed a bearish crossover and the RSI is in the negative territory. This suggests that the bears have the upper hand.
Market data is provided by the HitBTC exchange.