The US presidential election has been dominating the headlines over the past few weeks, and especially over the last several days. However, while it officially has no direct connection to the crypto or blockchain industry, the industry is still heavily impacted by it. Particularly when it comes to speculations and predictions regarding who will be the next president.
There is no doubt that blockchain-based elections would be faster, safer, cheaper, and simpler — this is something that even the biggest names in the crypto world have agreed upon. But, while the elections are still far from being held on blockchain technology, speculation and bets regarding the candidates and who might win the presidential race are not.
In fact, the crypto-powered predictive markets have been overrun with election-related bets. Even Ethereum’s Vitalik Buterin commented: “Regardless of who wins from here, I definitely think that the prediction markets have proven themselves more accurate than the polls/models this time around.”
Regardless of who wins from here, I definitely think that the prediction markets have proven themselves more accurate than the polls/models this time around.
— vitalik.eth (@VitalikButerin) November 4, 2020
Futures tokens see a spike in volume and volatility
Presidential futures tokens have been swinging widely due to the recent events, as the votes started coming in from across the US. TRUMP futures recently saw a major spike, from $0.38 to $0.80 on the crypto derivatives exchange FTX. However, as Biden started gaining the upper hand, the TRUMP futures saw a quick crash.
And so, the TRUMP tokens, which were supposed to have a redeemable value of $1 if Trump ends up winning, are currently only trading at $0.09.
FTX recently saw a trade of $16 million worth of TRUMP tokens, while BIDEN tokens pushed around $6 million.
The activity also rose on a prediction platform Augur, which is based on Ethereum. Around $8.6 million in volume, and $4.75 million in open interest, were reported recently.
This years election markets have surpassed Augur v1's previous OI and trading volume records from the 2018 House market ($2.5M & $6M). Thanks to everyone who used or tried Augur for the first time, we hope you stick around!https://t.co/3jFtwWVaLw
— Augur (@AugurProject) November 4, 2020
With such high popularity of predictive markets based on crypto and blockchain, many are assessing that this kind of betting could become a new trend, and that similar bets will likely start being a lot more common.
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