3 reasons why Ethereum is unlikely to flip Bitcoin any time soon

For years, analysts have been making predictions that ETH’s market capitalization will flip BTC’s, but data shows it’s still nothing more than a guessing game.

After a 13% rise in two days, Bitcoin’s (BTC) market capitalization surpassed $800 billion to reach its highest value in 79 days. During the same timeframe, Ether (ETH) accumulated a 45% gain in two weeks, placing the network’s market cap at $340 billion. 

Positive expectations for the London hard fork and its potential deflationary effect undoubtedly played a role, but some investors continue to question how Ether’s valuation stacks against Bitcoin’s. Some, including Pantera Capital CEO Dan Morehead, expect Ether to outpace Bitcoin as the largest cryptocurrency.

Market participants may have also been excited after Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari suggested that the United States Federal Reserve may stick with the asset-purchase program a bit longer. The reason cited was the spread of COVID-19’s Delta variant and its potential harm to the labor market.

Kashkari said:

“Delta could discourage people from returning to jobs that require in-person interaction and keep kids out of schools.”

Extending the stimulus raises the inflationary risk, which increases the attractiveness of scarce assets such as real estate, commodities, stocks and cryptocurrencies. However, the impact of these macroeconomic changes should equally impact Bitcoin and Ether.

Active addresses give Bitcoin a clear lead

Comparing some of Ethereum’s metrics could shed some light on whether Ether’s 58% discount is justified. The first step should be to measure the number of active addresses, excluding low amounts.

Addresses with $1,000 or higher balances. Source: CoinMetrics

As shown above, Bitcoin has 6 million addresses worth $1,000 or higher, and 3.67 million have been created since 2020. Meanwhile, Ether has less than half at 2.7 million addresses with $1,000. The altcoin’s growth has also been slower, with 2.4 million of those created since 2020.

This metric is 55% lower for Ether, and this corroborates the market capitalization gap. However, this analysis does not include how much large clients have invested. Although there is no good way to estimate this number, measuring cryptocurrency exchange-traded products could be a good proxy.

Ether lags on exchange-traded products

Publicly traded crypto products. Source: Bloomberg and Investing.com

After aggregating data from multiple exchange-traded instruments, the result is telling. Bitcoin dominates with $32.3 billion in assets under management, while Ether totals $11.7 billion. The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) plays a vital role in this discrepancy because it was launched in September 2013.

Meanwhile, Ether’s first exchange-traded product came in October 2017, when XBT Provider’s Ether Tracker was launched. This difference partially explains why Ether’s total is 64% lower than Bitcoin’s.

Futures open interest justifies the price gap

Lastly, one should compare the futures markets data. Open interest is the best metric of professional investors’ actual positions because it measures market participants’ total number of contracts.

An investor could have bought $50 million worth of futures and sold the entire position a couple of days later. This $100 million in traded volume does not currently represent any market exposure, therefore, it should be disregarded.

Bitcoin futures aggregate open interest. Source: Bybt

Bitcoin futures open interest currently amounts to $14.2 billion, down from a $27.7-billion peak on April 13. Binance exchange leads with $3.4 billion, followed by FTX with $2.3 billion.

Ether futures aggregate open interest. Source: Bybt

On the other hand, the open interest in Ether futures peaked about a month later at $10.8 billion, and the indicator currently stands at $7.6 billion. Therefore, it is 46% lower than Bitcoin’s, which further explains the valuation discount.

Related: Ethereum market cap hits $337 billion, surpassing Nestle, P&G and Roche

Other metrics such as on-chain data and miner revenues show a more balanced situation, but both cryptocurrencies have different use cases. For example, 54% of the Bitcoin supply has remained untouched for longer than one year.

The truth is that any indicator has a downside, and there is no definitive valuation metric to determine whether a cryptocurrency is above or below its fair value. However, the three metrics analyzed suggest that Ether’s upside, when priced in Bitcoin, does not signal a “flippening” anytime soon.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should conduct your own research when making a decision.

Publication date: 
08/07/2021 - 23:49
Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the views of Bitcoin Insider. Every investment and trading move involves risk - this is especially true for cryptocurrencies given their volatility. We strongly advise our readers to conduct their own research when making a decision.