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The bulls are back in control after a brief drop in the price of Bitcoin. The first cryptocurrency by market cap trades north of $57,000 with a 2.5% and 11.1% profit in the daily and weekly charts, respectively.
BTC on a rally in the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD Tradingview
The general sentiment in the markets itâs bullish, as operators and traders expect Bitcoin to fulfill its historical performance. BTCâs price usually tends to trend to the upside as the year comes to an end.
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Bitcoin is trading less than $10,000 away from its all-time high at $64,870 and it could run into uncharted territory if, as the Director of Macro for Fidelity Jurrien Timmer said in an interview with CNBC, short-term holders FOMO into BTC. These investors are those that have only held BTC for the past 3 months.
As seen in the chart below, only 15% of the BTC total supply is currently held by âmomentum chasersâ. In order for Bitcoin to reach new highs, this metric must stand above 20%.
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter
In that sense, Timmer believes Bitcoinâs current run to the upside lack âexcessivenessâ which could suggest some stability and sustainability for the current price action. Unlike previous rallies, this time Bitcoin seems to be moving outside the influence of âspeculatorsâ, as Timmer called them.
However, some traders could find Timmerâs prediction disappointing as he believes the benchmark crypto is far from the major psychological mark of $100,000.
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When the expert checked the Bitcoin/Gold ratio to analyzed BTCâs supply to demand model, he found the following:
So is bitcoin on its way to new highs? I know better than to make bold price projections but I will note that the next (and last) time my supply-and-demand models intersect is at around $100k in 2023 or 2024.
Source: Jurrien Timmer via Twitter
Bitcoin Far From The Top, Bulls Step On The Accelerator
On the other hand, analyst Allen Au looked at the Bitcoin Pi Cycle Top indicator to determine if the cryptocurrency has entered a bearish phase. This metric has been historically accurate to predict market tops.
As the analyst explained, it uses the 111-day simple moving average and the 250 simple moving average (SMA) of the price of Bitcoin. When these two intertwine, operators begin to suspect BTC has reached its top.
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Unlike Timmer, this model predicts a Bitcoin price beyond the $300,000 mark by the end of 2021. As the analyst clarified, Bitcoin needs to outperform the previous bullish cycle in order for the metric to be accurate:
What Iâve shown is not to invalidate the Pi Cycle Top indicator or agree that there is a lengthening cycle. What the simulations have shown is that the Pi Cycle Top will miss BTCâs cycle peak if it were to occur in Dec. 2021 unless BTC is in a supercycle now.
Source: Allen Au via Twitter
In the scenarios presented by Au, without taking into consideration the exact BTCâs price prediction, the cryptocurrency will trend to the upside at least until it reaches its potential peak in 2022.
Disclaimer
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the views of Bitcoin Insider. Every investment and trading move involves risk - this is especially true for cryptocurrencies given their volatility. We strongly advise our readers to conduct their own research when making a decision.