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Bitcoin preserves its snap October gains, but BTC price analysis reveals reasons for staying level-headed about the future.
Bitcoin (BTC) aimed for $28,500 at the Oct. 2 Wall Street open as a bullish start to the month continued.
BTC/USD 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
Analyst wary of Bitcoin “upside wick” fakeout
The largest cryptocurrency made swift gains into the weekly close, following a contrastingly cool monthly candle completion that saw BTC/USD finish at $26,970.
For popular trader and analyst Rekt Capital, this monthly close — despite now being more than 5% below spot price — called for caution.
“Bitcoin performed a September Monthly Candle Close below ~$27,100 (black),” he wrote in part of the day’s X (formerly Twitter) analysis alongside an explanatory chart.
“Technically, black was solidified as resistance for September.”
Rekt Capital acknowledged the October breakout and said this would “invalidate the bearish predicament” should it endure.
“But because BTC Monthly Closed below black, there is always going to be a chance that this price action could end up as an upside wick,” he continued.
“Bitcoin has offered upside wicks of up to +8% long before. Right now, BTC is up +4.5% this month. So technically, anything up to ~$29400 (+8%) could theoretically end as an upside wick.”
BTC/USD annotated chart. Source: Rekt Capital/X
Closer to home, market observers noted ongoing encouraging signals on exchange order books.
“Spot bid continues, while funding is negative. This reeks of disbelief,” popular trader Jelle suggested as a result.
Fellow trader Skew noted that spot markets were driving the move after the Wall Street open, displaying an “interesting disconnect” with derivatives.
— Skew Δ (@52kskew) October 2, 2023
Bitcoin shrugs off fresh U.S. dollar surge
Just as eager to hit new local highs on the day, meanwhile, was the U.S. dollar.
After Congress avoided a government shutdown, the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) staged a sharp rebound from losses seen late last week.
At the time of writing, the DXY circled 106.7, barely 0.2 points off its recent 2023 highs.
DXY 1-day chart. Source: TradingView
For crypto analyst Nebraskan Gooner, a breakout from here would put 108 in play — marking new 11-month highs.
— Nebraskangooner (@Nebraskangooner) October 2, 2023
Together with higher bond yields and oil prices, Economist Mohamed El-Erian described the DXY strength as “neither the US economy (particularly, growth and financial stability) nor the markets enjoy.”
Bitcoin nonetheless remained conspicuously unfazed.
This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move involves risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.
The views and opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not reflect the views of Bitcoin Insider. Every investment and trading move involves risk - this is especially true for cryptocurrencies given their volatility. We strongly advise our readers to conduct their own research when making a decision.