Jinxed It? Indicator Bets Bitcoin Won’t Fall Below $10K After August

Lowest price forward claims that after August this year, Bitcoin will never trade below five figures again.

Bitcoin (BTC) will never cost less than $10,000 again after August this year — according to a price indicator gaining popularity among investors.

In a tweet on June 2, Timothy Peterson of asset manager Cane Island Alternative Advisors drew attention to a watershed moment for the largest cryptocurrency.

Lowest Price Forward dictates $10K BTC floor

According to Lowest Price Forward (LPF), in just two months’ time, Bitcoin will see $10,000 per coin for the last time ever. 

LPF, which was previously known as the “never look back price,” makes price predictions for BTC/USD on a given date in the future. 

One of Peterson’s few preferred metrics, LPF last month formed one of three factors in a bullish convergence which he suggested should trigger a bull run. At the time, Bitcoin’s LPF for December 31, 2020, was $10,400.

“If Lowest Price Forward trend holds, August 2020 will be the last time we see #bitcoin below $10,000,” he wrote, uploading an accompanying chart showing the trend.

BTC/USD lowest price forward chart

BTC/USD lowest price forward chart. Source: Timothy Peterson/ Twitter

PlanB: Prepare for 5-digit BTC price moves

Even if relying on metrics, claiming that the Bitcoin price will stay above a certain level for the rest of history has traditionally been a dangerous game. 

Analysts and pundits alike have put their faith in Bitcoin never revisiting a price point, only to be publicly reminded of their folly once markets prove them wrong.

The practice has even become a source of amusement for some, with traders making spurious announcements about BTC/USD never retracing to a price of their choosing.

Peterson meanwhile has delivered further insights into Bitcoin’s price performance. In April, for example, he noted that intraday gains of $1,000 on average triggered drawdowns of nearly 40%.

Such moves could become much more common, fellow quant analyst PlanB suggested this week. In a Twitter exchange, the stock-to-flow model creator said that even five-figure shifts may become a regular feature for Bitcoin.

“Last 3 years we had nine $2000+ months .. 25% .. only need a couple of those. Also we should not be surprised to see 5-digit moves in the future,” he wrote.

Publication date: 
06/03/2020 - 14:58
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